Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd0a1…ba88 crypto 33 markets active 6d ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%27W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$525per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$12
crypto 2% −$32
tech 1% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 6 +0.5% -9.0% 83% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 89% 0% -8.8%
all 30 -2.3% -11.6% 90% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses27 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage542d
Avg bet$525
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 30 $16 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? Apr 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $120 in February? Mar 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Mar 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 27 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 27 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 15 $19 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 24 $39 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in October? Oct 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Oct 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 14 $34 +$3 +10%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will StepFun have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Fe Feb 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 14 $16,706 −$12 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 50d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $15 50d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $10 50d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $12 104d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? BUY No 99¢ $15 104d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 99¢ $13 104d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $20 109d
Will Solana reach $120 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 109d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 152d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 152d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $14 152d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $20 152d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 183d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $20 183d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $19 204d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $20 204d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? BUY No 99¢ $39 231d
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in October? BUY No 75¢ $38 252d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $37 293d
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? BUY No 100¢ $37 336d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.95 · official $40.95 (match) · 111 history records