Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D0 0xd0a3…962f crypto 943 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,868 (-8%) realized −$2,758 · open −$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate55%512W / 426L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$974now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$283
14 days−$122
30 days−$2,586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$999
world 24% −$1,220
politics 15% −$630
other 8% −$292
tech 1% +$35
finance 0% −$33
sports 0% −$32
economics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -12.0% -20.4% 58% 32% -15.8%
≤30d 716 -5.3% -14.3% 58% 34% -17.8%
≤90d 938 -7.8% -16.5% 55% 34% -17.1%
all 938 -7.8% -16.5% 55% 34% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 34% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 21% -25.0%
15% -31.8% 13% -32.2%
20% -38.5% 9% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$974
Realized−$2,758
Unrealized−$110
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses512 / 426
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)938 / 943
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 938 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $520 $517 −$3 (-1%)
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 50¢ 50¢ $235 $235 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 63¢ 40¢ $249 $157 −$92 (-37%)
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $79 $65 −$15 (-19%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +11%
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? Jun 17 $55 −$13 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$11 -21%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +15%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 17 $100 −$35 -35%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $300 +$49 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $190 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$16 -70%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $75 −$2 -3%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 16 $44 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $46 −$6 -12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $774 −$72 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$5 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $85 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$10 +82%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $77 −$29 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $157 +$53 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $35 −$16 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $167 18m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $82 22m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 22m
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 72¢ $25 22m
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $42 22m
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $55 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $13 1h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $57 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 88¢ $522 3h
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL Yes 34¢ $45 3h
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 65¢ $23 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 4h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 81¢ $250 5h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 54¢ $77 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $190 5h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 49¢ $49 5h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $2 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $16 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $974.26 · official $980.90 (match) · 3500 history records