Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:24:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0ad…2391 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$281 (-16%) realized −$281 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%32W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$227
sports 36% −$63
crypto 8% −$5
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -19.6% -27.3% 62% 23% -24.6%
≤30d 52 -19.6% -27.3% 62% 23% -24.6%
≤90d 52 -19.6% -27.3% 62% 23% -24.6%
all 52 -19.6% -27.3% 62% 23% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 23% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 19% -31.9%
15% -40.6% 10% -38.4%
20% -46.4% 4% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$25 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses32 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$2 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $91 +$3 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$20 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -33%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$188 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $141 +$17 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$5 +30%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo SELL FOKUS 86¢ $5 51m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 85¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 100¢ $104 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 96¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL REKONIX 100¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 93¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $51 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $108 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $1 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records