Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0ae…428c other 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+5%) realized +$246 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%47W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$192
14 days+$104
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$247
sports 24% −$109
crypto 2% +$151
world 2% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -1.1% -10.5% 22% 22% -2.9%
≤30d 223 -1.8% -11.1% 21% 21% -7.3%
≤90d 223 -1.8% -11.1% 21% 21% -7.3%
all 223 -1.8% -11.1% 21% 21% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 21% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 21% -16.1%
15% -27.4% 21% -24.2%
20% -34.5% 20% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$20 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses47 / 176
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)223 / 217
History coverage14d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $31 +$76 +249%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $36 +$318 +880%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $21 +$207 +1008%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $23 −$23 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $31 +$184 +596%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $39 −$25 -63%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $28 −$28 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $47 +$67 +141%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $31 +$36 +118%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 88¢ $191 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 75¢ $55 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 75¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 75¢ $36 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 75¢ $58 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 4h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 20h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.31 · official $112.31 (match) · 443 history records