Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0ae…f81c crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$583 (-22%) realized −$636 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.1% -16.0% 37% 37% -11.8%
≤30d 24 -26.5% -33.5% 29% 29% -31.8%
≤90d 24 -26.5% -33.5% 29% 29% -31.8%
all 24 -26.5% -33.5% 29% 29% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 29% -31.8%
10% -39.9% 29% -38.4%
15% -45.7% 25% -44.3%
20% -51.0% 25% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$97 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$636
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage19d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 16¢ 50¢ $25 $78 +$53 (+212%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $406 +$95 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $81 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $79 +$232 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $80 +$84 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $130 +$354 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$120 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$76 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $78 +$48 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $221 −$221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 06 $52 −$50 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $282 −$271 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $255 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $232 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $406 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $27 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $109 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.30 · official $78.30 (match) · 102 history records