Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0b7…fa4b world 415 markets active 4h ago coverage 83d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-1%) realized −$29 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate57%203W / 151L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$395
14 days−$406
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$528
politics 10% +$75
other 8% +$51
finance 8% +$70
sports 3% +$218
crypto 2% −$49
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -59.0% -62.9% 10% 8% -55.5%
≤30d 142 +25.9% +13.9% 42% 24% -11.7%
≤90d 354 +25.7% +13.8% 57% 33% -0.2%
all 354 +25.7% +13.8% 57% 33% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 33% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here +2.9% 27% -9.8%
15% -7.1% 22% -18.5%
20% -16.2% 18% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$2,301
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses203 / 151
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions114
Markets (closed)354 / 415
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 114 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 83¢ 89¢ $148 $159 +$11 (+7%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 85¢ 81¢ $111 $105 −$6 (-5%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $53 $61 +$8 (+16%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $47 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 27¢ $53 $38 −$15 (-29%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 70¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-10%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 93¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+22%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 90¢ 94¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 80¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 98¢ $12 $16 +$3 (+28%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 95¢ 97¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Jun 18 $13 −$12 -89%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 18 $29 −$30 -103%
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 18 $71 −$77 -108%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 8? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $4 −$8 -193%
Will Iran strike Oman in March? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Jun 18 $7 −$12 -181%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $6 −$19 -340%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Jun 18 $3 −$14 -499%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -103%
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 18 $2 −$21 -953%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -109%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Jun 18 $4 +$6 +170%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? Jun 18 $0 $0 -79%
US strikes Iraq by March 7? Jun 18 $9 −$6 -66%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -104%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Februa Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Jun 18 $15 −$16 -110%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -77%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Jun 18 $7 −$9 -130%
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $8 −$3 -38%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $19 −$7 -38%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$36 +581%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 17 $73 +$18 +25%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 +$2 +5%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $27 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 12h
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? BUY No 88¢ $4 24h
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? BUY No 89¢ $4 24h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 33¢ $5 24h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 32¢ $7 24h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $6 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 24h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 35h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 35h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 37h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 98¢ $17 37h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 59¢ $27 37h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $9 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 11¢ $2 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 42h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 42h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 42h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 42h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 42h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 42h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 42h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,300.97 · official $2,301.37 (match) · 3500 history records