Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

D0 0xd0ba…a7c4 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$95 (-2%) realized −$95 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate71%15W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$186per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$44est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$411

7 days−$738

14 days−$738

30 days−$563

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+11.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-4.1%	-13.2%	55%	55%	-29.0%
≤30d	21	+23.6%	+11.8%	71%	67%	-22.6%
≤90d	21	+23.6%	+11.8%	71%	67%	-22.6%
all	21	+23.6%	+11.8%	71%	67%	-22.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.8%	67%	-22.6%
10%	+1.1%	67%	-30.0%
15%	-8.7%	52%	-36.8%
20%	-17.6%	43%	-43.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +54% → late -4% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$81 vs −$296 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$95

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses15 / 6

Est. fees paid−$44

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage22d

Avg bet$186

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$496	−$425	-86%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$229	+$267	+116%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$722	−$706	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$269	+$126	+47%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$400	+$328	+82%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$100	−$97	-97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$200	+$143	+72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$200	+$123	+61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$257	−$250	-98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$433	−$289	-67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$152	+$44	+29%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	Jun 02	$10	−$9	-97%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 02	$50	+$34	+68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?	Jun 02	$66	+$38	+57%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5	Jun 02	$108	+$8	+8%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5	Jun 01	$77	+$32	+41%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 01	$59	+$17	+30%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5	Jun 01	$35	+$24	+68%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 3.5	Jun 01	$27	+$8	+28%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5	Jun 01	$16	+$12	+73%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5	May 31	$4	+$12	+268%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	7¢	$70	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$300	3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$196	8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$229	19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$300	44h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$422	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$395	46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$728	46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$200	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$269	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	37¢	$100	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$200	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$323	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$200	2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$200	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$257	2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	1¢	$7	2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$200	2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$133	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	78¢	$196	2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	66¢	$137	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$152	2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$100	2d
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$10	20d
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	99¢	$84	20d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?	SELL Yes	99¢	$104	20d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01?	BUY Yes	61¢	$66	20d
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$50	20d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	99¢	$116	20d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	90¢	$108	20d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records