Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd0be…96ec crypto 910 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$401 (-4%) realized −$401 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate71%646W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$501
sports 2% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 635 -0.5% -9.9% 79% 74% -8.9%
≤30d 909 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 67% -14.0%
≤90d 909 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 67% -14.0%
all 909 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 67% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 67% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 44% -22.2%
15% -26.4% 20% -29.7%
20% -33.6% 13% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$401
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses646 / 263
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)909 / 910
History coverage30d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 82¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$8 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.01 · official $5.91 · 1637 history records