Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0be…85f4 world 21 markets active 2d ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-3%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$2
other 23% −$10
crypto 4% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 17% -10.5%
≤30d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 14% -10.2%
≤90d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 14% -10.2%
all 21 -1.1% -10.6% 48% 5% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 5% -12.5%
10% -19.1% 0% -20.9%
15% -26.9% 0% -28.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage465d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$4 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $62 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $25 −$11 -44%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 30 $15 $0 -1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $1 $0 -10%
Israeli military action against Iran by Friday? Mar 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 17 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 38h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $29 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $9 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $20 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $30 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $23 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $10 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 34¢ $23 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $33 8d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY No 98¢ $2 358d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records