Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0c2…4302 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$314 (-6%) realized −$316 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate33%33W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$380
7 days−$502
14 days−$499
30 days−$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$385
sports 22% −$209
crypto 17% +$32
weather 7% −$117
world 6% +$1
finance 3% $0
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -86.0% -87.3% 8% 6% -58.0%
≤30d 61 -71.9% -74.6% 16% 11% -39.5%
≤90d 100 -51.2% -55.9% 33% 18% -27.2%
all 100 -51.2% -55.9% 33% 18% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.9% 18% -27.2%
10% -60.1% 15% -34.2%
15% -64.0% 13% -40.5%
20% -67.5% 11% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses33 / 67
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 59
History coverage83d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 55¢ 57¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 19 $47 +$40 +84%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $58 −$58 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $110 +$80 +73%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $102 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $43 52m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $6 55m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $6 59m
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 87¢ $87 1h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 47¢ $45 2h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 47¢ $2 2h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 20¢ $18 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 36¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) SELL Knicks 95¢ $20 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) SELL Knicks 95¢ $71 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) SELL Knicks 95¢ $51 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) SELL Knicks 95¢ $12 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) SELL Knicks 95¢ $35 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 55¢ $109 5d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 55¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $95 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.49 · official $56.99 (match) · 338 history records