Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0c3…0230 sports 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,708 (-5%) realized −$2,708 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%62W / 88L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$441est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,279
7 days+$101
14 days−$200
30 days+$1,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$1,153
other 19% −$5,185
politics 6% +$545
crypto 0% −$30
world 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.0% -39.4% 30% 30% -6.7%
≤30d 21 +10.2% -0.3% 52% 52% +5.1%
≤90d 65 +0.8% -8.8% 46% 46% -1.8%
all 150 -10.2% -18.7% 41% 39% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 39% -14.9%
10% -26.5% 37% -23.1%
15% -33.6% 35% -30.5%
20% -40.1% 32% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$290 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,708
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses62 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$441
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage571d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 150 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $145 −$142 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $1,007 −$996 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $232 −$228 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $154 −$152 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $368 +$384 +104%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $97 −$95 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $154 −$151 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $256 +$239 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $749 +$1,292 +172%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 11 $310 −$301 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1,628 +$287 +18%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $329 −$323 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $43 +$33 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $165 +$132 +80%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) May 26 $107 +$221 +207%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 26 $146 +$212 +146%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $244 +$236 +97%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 25 $301 −$297 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $249 +$296 +119%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $604 +$587 +97%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 21 $312 +$291 +93%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $611 −$607 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 20 $279 +$331 +119%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $158 −$156 -99%
1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 19 $163 −$161 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $249 −$246 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 16 $1,585 +$1,467 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $516 +$784 +152%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 11 $1,000 −$986 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 10 $743 −$732 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $400 +$345 +86%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $399 −$392 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $936 +$357 +38%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) May 09 $245 +$444 +181%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $804 +$538 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $198 +$184 +93%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $203 +$154 +76%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $185 −$181 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $472 −$287 -61%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 06 $261 +$212 +81%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 06 $189 −$160 -85%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $202 −$198 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $416 +$675 +162%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $51 −$43 -84%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $366 −$290 -79%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $337 +$663 +197%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $203 −$203 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 44¢ $145 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $2 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $1,005 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $232 14h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $154 15h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $50 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $58 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $58 41h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 30¢ $44 41h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 36¢ $23 41h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 23¢ $31 41h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 29¢ $154 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $256 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $746 9d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) SELL Knicks $9 9d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 34¢ $1 9d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 33¢ $309 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $1,791 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 24d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,480 24d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 34¢ $1 25d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 35¢ $328 25d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $76 25d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $43 25d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $296 25d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 55¢ $165 25d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Knicks 40¢ $44 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 568 history records