Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0c4…5aa4 other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 661d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$11
other 26% −$5
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 72 -0.5% -10.0% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

661d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage661d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will 16-18 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? Nov 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Surtain II win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Please Please Please' win Song of the Year? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Nico Collins be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Raj Rao announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in December? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Aleo airdrop in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win the NFC Championship? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $64-70m on 3-day opening we Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers finish with the worst record in the NFL? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ryan Williams win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Fred Warner win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Dec 10 $0 $0 -5%
Will the Jets win the AFC East? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in November? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Global heat increase greater than 1.30°C for 2024? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will Rihanna be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Will the November unemployment rate be 4.3% or more? Nov 18 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Todd Blanche for Attorney General? Nov 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Nov 11 $0 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary? Nov 11 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 13h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 18d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 38d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 39d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $55 42d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 44d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 45d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $56 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 66d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $56 70d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 70d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $56 96d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $56 96d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $56 99d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $56 100d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $56 100d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $56 101d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 103d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 103d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $56 109d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $57 110d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 112d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 113d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 115d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 116d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 177 history records