Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0c5…8c8a other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7,753 (+47%) realized +$7,774 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%83W / 146L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$245
14 days−$292
30 days−$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$1,005
sports 22% +$6,731
crypto 1% −$42
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -34.3% -40.6% 38% 38% -31.8%
≤30d 16 -24.0% -31.2% 38% 38% -34.1%
≤90d 53 -19.8% -27.4% 28% 28% +109.1%
all 229 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 36% +40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 36% +40.8%
10% -17.5% 35% +27.4%
15% -25.5% 34% +15.1%
20% -32.8% 31% +3.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +131% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$171 vs −$45 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$1,635
Realized+$7,774
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses83 / 146
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions12
Markets (closed)229 / 260
History coverage274d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $600 $561 −$39 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $400 $439 +$39 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $93 $152 +$59 (+64%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $105 −$20 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $100 −$25 (-20%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $96 $69 −$27 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $54 +$34 (+168%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $49 +$24 (+98%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $17 +$10 (+138%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $2 −$38 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 141 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $69 −$67 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $114 +$54 +48%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $303 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $303 +$166 +55%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +197%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$98 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $50 −$48 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $92 −$90 -98%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 23 $1,142 +$6,611 +579%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 23 $153 −$144 -94%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 19 $203 +$209 +103%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $36 +$139 +388%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $47 +$69 +146%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 +$66 +129%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Southampton FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? Apr 28 $50 +$134 +267%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 18 $30 −$28 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 18 $15 −$14 -93%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $150 +$45 +30%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $20 +$88 +442%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $114 32m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY $49 1h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY $32 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY $60 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $410 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY $50 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY $48 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY $51 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $69 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $114 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a dr BUY $51 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $303 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 16¢ $32 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $10 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $303 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY $1 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $51 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY $51 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY $51 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a BUY $51 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $51 8d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $4 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $62 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06- BUY $49 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,635.37 · official $1,825.05 · 486 history records