trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 71% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 71% | 0% | -10.2% |
| all | 26 | -5.2% | -14.3% | 58% | 0% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.3% | 0% | -11.2% |
| 10% | -22.5% | 0% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -30.0% | 0% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 0% | -34.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 26 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $22 | −$2 | -7% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 24 | $32 | +$1 | +2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 24 | $33 | −$1 | -4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 22 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? | May 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 29 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Apr 29 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 28 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? | Apr 28 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio | Apr 27 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? | Apr 25 | $18 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? | Apr 24 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? | Apr 23 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | Apr 23 | $9 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | Apr 18 | $2 | −$1 | -35% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 17 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| TikTok sale announced before April? | Mar 28 | $12 | $0 | +0% |