Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd0c7…4eed other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+10%) realized +$32 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$36
sports 13% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +18.9% +7.6% 43% 43% +5.6%
≤30d 14 +18.9% +7.6% 43% 43% +5.6%
≤90d 14 +18.9% +7.6% 43% 43% +5.6%
all 14 +18.9% +7.6% 43% 43% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.6% 43% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.7% 43% -4.5%
15% -12.1% 43% -13.8%
20% -20.7% 21% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)14 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 29¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 70¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $15 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $15 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 22h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 35h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 35h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 46h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 46h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.79 · official $183.79 (match) · 52 history records