Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd0cb…1298 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$374 (+37%) realized +$294 · open +$80
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$221
politics 20% +$58
world 18% +$40
sports 5% −$2
economics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -31.8% -38.3% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤90d 7 +20.9% +9.4% 57% 57% +65.1%
all 37 -2.8% -12.0% 49% 43% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 43% +16.2%
10% -20.5% 41% +5.1%
15% -28.1% 32% -5.1%
20% -35.2% 27% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +82% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage226d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $60 $146 +$86 (+145%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 13¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$6 +52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 +$6 +20%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 +$106 +344%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? May 08 $64 +$19 +30%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 25 $20 +$6 +32%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $8 −$4 -50%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Jan 26 $10 −$9 -88%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 22 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jan 21 $2 +$3 +153%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jan 19 $10 +$7 +69%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $62 −$6 -10%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? Jan 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $20 +$20 +100%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Jan 13 $25 +$2 +8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 12 $15 +$23 +153%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 10 $49 −$7 -13%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -68%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 7? Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $30 +$37 +125%
Thailand x Cambodia declare war by Dec 31? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 28 $60 −$55 -91%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
ParenseDeManos: Mariano Pérez vs Manuel Jove Dec 20 $6 +$3 +49%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in November? Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31? Dec 04 $50 +$5 +10%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $28 +$12 +44%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $30 +$19 +64%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $30 +$34 +113%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 17 $100 +$31 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $28 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $105 10h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $6 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 12d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $2 16d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $105 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 19¢ $37 29d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 29d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? SELL No 100¢ $136 35d
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 22¢ $31 35d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes $5 52d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $83 52d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $64 74d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 121d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 35¢ $26 124d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 146d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 150d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 150d
US strike on Cuba by January 31? SELL Yes $1 153d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 158d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 158d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 158d
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $26 158d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL Yes $5 159d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 160d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $2 163d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.85 · official $224.85 (match) · 110 history records