Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0d3…dfcd other 105 markets active 22h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,524 (-6%) realized −$1,524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%51W / 52L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$197
14 days+$197
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$578
politics 11% +$111
crypto 9% −$425
sports 7% −$39
economics 3% −$147
finance 3% +$5
tech 2% −$166
world 1% +$23
weather 0% +$13
culture 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.4% +1.7% 44% 44% +1.6%
≤30d 18 +5.9% -4.2% 39% 39% -2.1%
≤90d 25 +8.7% -1.7% 52% 48% +0.5%
all 103 -5.9% -14.9% 50% 29% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 29% -14.0%
10% -23.0% 17% -22.3%
15% -30.4% 14% -29.8%
20% -37.3% 10% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$80 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses51 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage245d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$286 +140%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$77 -75%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $201 −$82 -41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$22 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$15 -30%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $172 +$28 +16%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 −$28 -56%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 22 $71 −$27 -38%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $154 +$132 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $162 −$130 -80%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 07 $491 +$9 +2%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $272 +$75 +28%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $300 +$34 +11%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 23 $206 +$104 +51%
Magic vs. Suns Mar 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $116 +$34 +30%
Will Retirement Plan win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Mar 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 16 $64 +$2 +3%
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 12 $168 +$22 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 09 $60 −$32 -54%
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 05 $173 +$17 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 04 $112 −$55 -49%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 01 $234 +$39 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $112 +$140 +125%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $10 −$4 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $23 +$11 +49%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 07 $936 −$504 -54%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Feb 05 $231 +$7 +3%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 04 $1,260 −$359 -28%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 04 $556 −$63 -11%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 04 $3,002 −$62 -2%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $374 −$68 -18%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 29 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 26? Jan 27 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour? Jan 26 $372 +$28 +8%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an Jan 26 $410 +$90 +22%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 24 $924 −$81 -9%
Will Team Human or Team AI win the Aster trading competition? Jan 24 $201 −$45 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $51 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 41¢ $204 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 40¢ $96 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $102 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2 BUY 9¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 50¢ $41 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 50¢ $1 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 50¢ $2 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 50¢ $61 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 50¢ $14 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 55¢ $203 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 84¢ $201 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $35 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $201 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $101 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 6d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 17d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 17d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 46¢ $44 26d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 40¢ $59 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 477 history records