Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D0 0xd0d4…dcab other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$16
politics 19% −$3
sports 6% −$20
world 5% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 96 -8.4% -17.1% 10% 6% -9.8%
all 96 -8.4% -17.1% 10% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 6% -9.8%
10% -25.0% 6% -18.4%
15% -32.3% 4% -26.3%
20% -38.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 86
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage89d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $329 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $80 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $196 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $327 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $311 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $159 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $323 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $518 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 28 $150 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $149 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $305 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $320 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $309 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $437 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $437 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $156 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 28h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 45h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.49 · official $134.49 (match) · 286 history records