Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd0d5…d3a6 other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$178 (-1%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate76%39W / 12L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$450
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$736
sports 38% +$659
world 5% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +4.5% -5.4% 80% 53% -9.2%
≤30d 50 +3.5% -6.4% 78% 52% -9.2%
≤90d 51 +1.5% -8.2% 76% 51% -9.8%
all 51 +1.5% -8.2% 76% 51% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 51% -9.8%
10% -17.0% 20% -18.4%
15% -25.0% 8% -26.3%
20% -32.4% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$173 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses39 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage65d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $181 +$33 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $501 +$53 +11%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 +$24 +24%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $148 +$12 +8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $211 +$13 +6%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $201 +$52 +26%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $217 +$67 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $271 +$32 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $445 +$39 +9%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $206 +$27 +13%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $446 +$74 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $425 +$21 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $382 +$44 +11%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $236 +$146 +62%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $604 −$368 -61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $588 +$11 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $381 +$211 +56%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $526 −$145 -28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $440 +$87 +20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $401 +$39 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $333 +$68 +20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $320 +$13 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $807 −$487 -60%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $682 +$126 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $569 +$112 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $500 +$70 +14%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $466 +$34 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $391 +$74 +19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $303 +$88 +29%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $280 +$23 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $242 +$38 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $193 +$49 +26%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $179 +$13 +7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $165 +$14 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 +$11 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$13 -8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $149 +$18 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $130 +$19 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$9 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 +$14 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$66 -33%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$17 -22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 +$61 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $128 −$90 -70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $923 −$726 -79%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $489 +$110 +22%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $274 −$44 -16%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $22 −$10 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 17m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $214 17m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $555 17m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $181 29m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 37m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $124 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $160 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $100 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $148 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $224 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $501 3h
Spain to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $270 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $202 4h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $302 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $14 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $271 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $15 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $115 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $12 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $56 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $33 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $115 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $115 15h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $234 15h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $314 15h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 87¢ $206 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records