Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D0
0xd0d5…39ec
other · 76 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$13 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$8
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 76
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%
Chart Positions 4 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$10
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? No 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-18? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-22? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +124%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $7 +$7 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Granada CF win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1 +$2 +158%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1 +$1 +60%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 +$1 +146%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 $0 +48%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +114%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% −$13
sports 9% +$6
world 6% −$3
crypto 2% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3h
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 6d
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 6d
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 6d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 6d
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 8d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 8d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 12d
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma BUY Deiveson Figueiredo 19¢ $1 12d
Will Granada CF win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 12d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 12d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 12¢ $3 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 16d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 36d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 36d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 39d
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 39d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -51.1% -55.8% 20% 20% -44.0%
≤30d 21 -44.5% -49.8% 24% 24% -36.8%
≤90d 73 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 44% -20.7%
all 73 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 44% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 44% -20.7%
10% -26.7% 44% -28.3%
15% -33.8% 44% -35.2%
20% -40.3% 41% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.85 · official $7.85 (match) · 110 history records