Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd0d9…d6db world 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,101 (+11%) realized +$8,056 · open −$955
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%62W / 38L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$273
7 days−$67
14 days+$1,025
30 days+$6,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$7,975
other 9% +$69
finance 8% −$1,040
crypto 0% +$15
politics 0% −$38
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.3% -24.2% 50% 50% -9.9%
≤30d 43 +28.4% +16.2% 63% 60% +7.2%
≤90d 100 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 48% +4.5%
all 100 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 48% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 48% +4.5%
10% -4.1% 37% -5.5%
15% ← realistic here -13.4% 29% -14.6%
20% -21.9% 19% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$141 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$4,716
Realized+$8,056
Unrealized−$955
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses62 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)100 / 115
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$546
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 68¢ 71¢ $1,048 $1,094 +$46 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $1,740 $1,090 −$650 (-37%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1,401 $1,036 −$365 (-26%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $577 $527 −$50 (-9%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $240 $288 +$48 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $264 $229 −$34 (-13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10¢ 10¢ $209 $219 +$10 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $65 $112 +$47 (+73%)
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 32¢ $30 $67 +$37 (+125%)
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Yes 18¢ 9¢ $47 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 50¢ 28¢ $27 $15 −$12 (-44%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $5 −$9 (-64%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+101%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Jun 17 $1,155 +$273 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,694 −$188 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,971 −$671 -34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $6,692 +$2,876 +43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,660 −$2,656 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,202 +$292 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 11 $44 +$15 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,587 +$1,092 +69%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 +$78 +223%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $831 +$132 +16%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $39 −$29 -74%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $22 +$9 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $107 +$17 +16%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $184 +$81 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $275 +$74 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $195 +$33 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 29 $59 −$13 -22%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $48 −$36 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $215 +$552 +257%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? May 28 $46 −$27 -57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $844 −$64 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $4,239 +$2,358 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $366 −$185 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $7 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $512 +$655 +128%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $329 +$513 +156%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 25 $158 +$451 +286%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? May 25 $1,745 −$195 -11%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? May 25 $118 −$28 -24%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? May 23 $217 +$82 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $80 +$31 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $33 +$8 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $1,299 +$195 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $934 −$33 -4%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? May 22 $5 +$3 +69%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 22 $1,091 +$342 +31%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $10 +$23 +234%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $84 +$10 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 20 $347 −$31 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1,031 +$585 +57%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 15 $1,452 −$7 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,028 −$62 -6%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 13 $40 −$6 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $29 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $120 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $209 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $7 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $55 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $38 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $55 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 8h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 8h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $39 10h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $61 10h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? SELL Yes 82¢ $126 15h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $111 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $42 19h
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $85 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $278 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,716.30 · official $4,716.27 (match) · 3500 history records