Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D0 0xd0d9…1187 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$306 (-5%) realized −$306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$851per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$219
14 days−$219
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$446
world 8% +$81
crypto 7% +$272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 80% -13.5%
≤30d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 80% 80% -13.5%
≤90d 7 +5.2% -4.8% 86% 71% -10.9%
all 7 +5.2% -4.8% 86% 71% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 71% -10.9%
10% -13.9% 14% -19.5%
15% -22.2% 14% -27.2%
20% -29.9% 14% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$998 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage86d
Avg bet$851
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $407 +$272 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,351 +$155 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,207 +$145 +12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $999 +$208 +21%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $998 −$998 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $497 +$81 +16%
Nothing Ever Happens: March Mar 31 $497 +$45 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $679 41m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $305 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,351 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,351 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,207 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,207 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $392 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $607 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $998 3d
Nothing Ever Happens: March SELL Nothing 72¢ $542 81d
Nothing Ever Happens: March BUY Nothing 66¢ $497 85d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $497 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records