Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D0 0xd0db…6044 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$15
politics 28% −$10
sports 11% +$26
crypto 6% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 113 +0.5% -9.1% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 6% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage133d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $420 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $313 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $361 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $141 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $386 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $138 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $341 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $141 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $408 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $356 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $265 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $233 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $440 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $256 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $263 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $278 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 15 $483 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $493 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $222 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $285 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 06 $250 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $706 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 2h
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 14h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 14h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 33h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 41h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 47h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $23 20d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $148 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $148 24d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $163 24d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $163 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $175 25d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $175 25d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $136 25d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $136 25d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $141 27d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $141 27d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $162 27d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $162 27d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $158 27d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $158 28d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $138 29d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $138 29d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $169 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 369 history records