Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0dd…ec77 crypto 47 markets active 2d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$78 (-27%) realized −$46 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%25W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$78
crypto 40% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -11.3% -19.8% 64% 54% -6.2%
≤30d 43 -19.4% -27.1% 58% 49% -35.3%
≤90d 43 -19.4% -27.1% 58% 49% -35.3%
all 43 -19.4% -27.1% 58% 49% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 49% -35.3%
10% -34.0% 30% -41.5%
15% -40.4% 21% -47.1%
20% -46.3% 12% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$46
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses25 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $65 $71 +$6 (+10%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 37¢ 10¢ $46 $13 −$33 (-71%)
Will Iván Cepeda win between 50% and 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will Iván Cepeda win more than 55% of votes in the first round of the Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.96 · official $84.96 (match) · 142 history records