Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd0de…3b38 weather 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$614 (+10%) realized +$562 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate78%237W / 67L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$713now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$397
14 days+$525
30 days+$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$578
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +20.0% +8.6% 96% 91% +11.9%
≤30d 114 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 72% +0.8%
≤90d 304 -1.6% -10.9% 78% 58% -1.0%
all 304 -1.6% -10.9% 78% 58% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 58% -1.0%
10% -19.5% 40% -10.4%
15% -27.2% 20% -19.1%
20% -34.4% 10% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$713
Realized+$562
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses237 / 67
Open positions7
Markets (closed)304 / 311
History coverage68d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 29? No 79¢ 91¢ $200 $231 +$31 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28? No 71¢ 88¢ $150 $187 +$37 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? No 88¢ 86¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? No 71¢ 68¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 29? No 87¢ 79¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28? No 66¢ 65¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 29? No 75¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 27? Jun 28 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? Jun 28 $101 +$21 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 26? Jun 27 $152 +$36 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 27 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? Jun 27 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25? Jun 26 $152 +$48 +31%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? Jun 26 $76 +$16 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $151 +$28 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $8 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 25 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 24? Jun 25 $75 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $152 +$48 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 24 $101 +$13 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 23? Jun 24 $76 +$21 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 23? Jun 24 $76 +$22 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 23 $152 +$59 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $101 +$28 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 21? Jun 22 $76 +$22 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $151 +$30 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 20 $76 −$75 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $152 +$51 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $101 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? Jun 20 $75 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $152 +$46 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $98 +$27 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $75 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 +$6 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $75 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $151 +$31 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $101 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $151 +$23 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $75 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 13 $39 −$38 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $151 +$30 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $38 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $75 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $76 +$16 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $151 +$34 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$14 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 71¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 29 BUY No 79¢ $202 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY No 87¢ $100 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 66¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $21 22h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? BUY No 84¢ $80 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 29? BUY No 75¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28? BUY No 71¢ $152 32h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 26? BUY No 87¢ $101 45h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 27? BUY No 84¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 26? BUY No 80¢ $152 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 27? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? BUY No 82¢ $76 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $152 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 67¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 70¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 67¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 67¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $75 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 62¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $712.95 · official $712.96 (match) · 648 history records