Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0e0…a64a crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$349 (-27%) realized −$301 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$415
14 days−$398
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$124
other 33% −$296
sports 8% +$8
politics 8% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 45% -46.6%
≤30d 27 -19.1% -26.8% 52% 48% -44.1%
≤90d 31 -18.4% -26.2% 52% 48% -42.8%
all 31 -18.4% -26.2% 52% 48% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 48% -42.8%
10% -33.3% 48% -48.3%
15% -39.7% 35% -53.3%
20% -45.6% 23% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$45 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage77d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $48 $1 −$48 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $204 +$80 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $241 −$240 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 18 $48 −$36 -74%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $26 +$23 +86%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $18 +$6 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.55 (match) · 67 history records