Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd0e1…99db sports 610 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,087 (+0%) realized +$6,886 · open −$5,799
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate81%487W / 113L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$1,486est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$6,698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,284
7 days−$155
14 days+$569
30 days+$9,531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$269
other 17% −$706
world 1% +$457
politics 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 +3.3% -6.6% 76% 28% -9.6%
≤30d 340 +4.6% -5.4% 80% 27% -4.6%
≤90d 600 +4.1% -5.8% 81% 24% -7.6%
all 600 +4.1% -5.8% 81% 24% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 24% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 20% -16.4%
15% -23.1% 16% -24.5%
20% -30.6% 12% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$384 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$6,698
Realized+$6,886
Unrealized−$5,799
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses487 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1,486
Open positions10
Markets (closed)600 / 610
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$425
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 67¢ 50¢ $6,621 $4,966 −$1,655 (-25%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 99¢ 100¢ $625 $629 +$3 (+1%)
Colombia to win the second half? No 35¢ 70¢ $220 $445 +$224 (+102%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 4¢ $4,463 $433 −$4,031 (-90%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 100¢ $62 $135 +$73 (+117%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Austria 98¢ 50¢ $95 $48 −$47 (-49%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 60¢ 4¢ $381 $22 −$359 (-94%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Team to Take First Corner Jordan 8¢ 50¢ $2 $15 +$12 (+554%)
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Brazil 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama to win the second half? Jun 18 $4 +$3 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $246 +$151 +61%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $127 −$127 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $706 +$706 +100%
England vs. Croatia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $995 +$5 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $990 +$10 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3,072 +$28 +1%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $359 +$397 +110%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $436 +$214 +49%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $431 +$530 +123%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $176 +$19 +11%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $445 −$445 -100%
England to win the second half? Jun 17 $672 −$672 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,025 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,481 +$15 +1%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $430 +$873 +203%
DR Congo to win the second half? Jun 17 $243 +$52 +21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2,390 +$2 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $164 +$185 +113%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$100 +400%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $122 +$100 +82%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $806 −$806 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $35 +$8 +22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $94 −$94 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $170 −$168 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $453 +$47 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $691 +$9 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $851 +$1 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $863 +$323 +37%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $597 +$505 +84%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $156 +$12 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $342 −$342 -100%
Austria to win the second half? Jun 17 $418 −$418 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $139 +$1 +0%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 17 $70 +$21 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,025 +$4,539 +113%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $800 +$67 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $26 +$2 +8%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $4,113 −$4,113 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $86 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $46 +$26 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2,497 9m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $20 17m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $99 18m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $1 18m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $27 18m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $3 19m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $11 19m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $77 19m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $48 19m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $232 19m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $107 19m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $245 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $99 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $33 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $159 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $62 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $50 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $295 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $7 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $22 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $2 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $14 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $13 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $2 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $27 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,698.13 · official $6,698.13 (match) · 3500 history records