Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd0e2…b39f crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$104 (+15%) realized +$90 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%119W / 87L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day50.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$188
weather 4% $0
other 1% −$6
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 57% +18.8%
≤30d 206 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 57% +18.8%
≤90d 206 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 57% +18.8%
all 206 +16.1% +5.0% 58% 57% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.0% 57% +18.8%
10% ← realistic here -5.0% 56% +7.4%
15% -14.2% 56% -3.0%
20% -22.6% 53% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses119 / 87
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions33
Markets (closed)206 / 239
History coverage5d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 43¢ 50¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 44¢ 50¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 43¢ 50¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 43¢ 50¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 10¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+405%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 56¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 28¢ 50¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+77%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 58¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 62¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 40¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 21¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+136%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 43¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 45¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 53¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 67¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 39¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 43¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 45¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$26 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$18 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$6 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $33 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $17 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.72 · official $152.72 (match) · 483 history records