Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd0e7…3335 sports 1205 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 154d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,085 (-0%) realized −$2,046 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%850W / 479L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$1,174est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,094now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 154d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$11,734
other 4% +$3,909
crypto 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -72.2% -74.9% 23% 9% -57.3%
≤30d 259 -51.3% -55.9% 39% 25% -42.3%
≤90d 734 -21.2% -28.7% 57% 49% -22.7%
all 1329 -12.3% -20.7% 64% 58% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 58% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 35% -23.0%
15% -35.2% 15% -30.4%
20% -41.6% 7% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$271 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1,094
Realized−$2,046
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses850 / 479
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,174
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1329 / 1205
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$461
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $1,133 $1,094 −$39 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 393 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $390 −$390 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $274 −$274 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-12-20? Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $246 −$246 -100%
Chelsea vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 20 $156 −$156 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-23? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Nigeria vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $447 −$447 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will CD Santa Clara vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-01-10? Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $244 −$244 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2025-11-28? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $304 −$304 -100%
Manchester United vs. Everton: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $148 −$148 -100%
Senegal vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $268 −$268 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $214 −$214 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-06? Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
PEC Zwolle vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $505 −$505 -100%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-09? Jun 20 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-11-23? Jun 20 $150 −$151 -101%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 20 $350 −$350 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 −$144 -144%
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $287 −$287 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Jun 20 $209 −$209 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10? Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $195 −$195 -100%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-12-21? Jun 20 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 20 $679 −$679 -100%
NAC Breda vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NEC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-06? Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $187 −$187 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Jun 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $128 −$128 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $213 −$213 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $301 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 86¢ $301 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,034 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $301 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $415 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $77 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $28 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $463 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $475 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $433 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $433 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $400 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $125 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $525 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $474 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $474 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $447 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $412 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $412 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $376 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $377 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $358 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $358 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $341 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $341 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $322 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $207 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $115 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $374 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $374 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,094.45 · official $1,094.45 (match) · 3500 history records