Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0e8…bfb7 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$4
other 17% $0
politics 13% $0
economics 9% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 6% +$3
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.3% -6.6% 67% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 13 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 0% -8.2%
all 34 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -8.5%
10% -20.1% 0% -17.2%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.08 per $1 lost it wins $5.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage473d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $45 +$4 +8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $8 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $34 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Mar 31 $1 $0 +3%
Will George Tuță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Dec 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18? Apr 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 26 $19 $0 -2%
Will 'Wicked' win 4-5 Oscars at the 2025 Academy Awards? Mar 20 $18 $0 +1%
LSU vs. Kentucky Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $15 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $32 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $17 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $15 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $29 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $11 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $21 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $32 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $35 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $34 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 47¢ $4 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 47¢ $7 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 47¢ $4 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 40¢ $13 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $11 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $11 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $11 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records