Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0ec…65bc world 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$6
politics 23% −$1
other 15% $0
tech 8% +$1
sports 6% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 10 -2.8% -12.0% 30% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 11 -2.7% -11.9% 27% 0% -10.9%
all 32 -2.8% -12.0% 25% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage324d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $129 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $48 −$2 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $25 −$5 -19%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $12 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $2 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $3 −$1 -55%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 31 $88 +$1 +1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31? Jul 30 $66 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 30 $46 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? Jul 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 29 $64 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $6 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 7m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $44 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $44 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $46 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $20 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $27 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $40 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $22 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $34 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $50 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $50 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records