Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd0f1…9e40 sports 342 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+3%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate74%253W / 89L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$36
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$67
other 12% −$24
crypto 10% −$5
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -5.6% -14.6% 78% 51% -4.6%
≤30d 57 -1.6% -11.0% 81% 54% -3.6%
≤90d 342 -4.8% -13.8% 74% 27% -7.3%
all 342 -4.8% -13.8% 74% 27% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 27% -7.3%
10% -22.1% 8% -16.1%
15% -29.6% 4% -24.2%
20% -36.5% 2% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses253 / 89
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $33 +$13 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $14 +$1 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 +$2 +19%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Arda Güler: 2+ shots Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 −$4 -56%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $9 +$1 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $96 +$4 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $59 +$11 +19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $13 +$7 +57%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $12 +$3 +23%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $36 +$4 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $45 +$15 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 +$2 +23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $8 +$2 +26%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $21 +$9 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $19 +$5 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $21 +$3 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $47 +$6 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $35 +$9 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 +$3 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $31 +$11 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $24 +$11 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $46 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $12 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $2 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $8 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $14 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 33h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $10 34h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $10 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 36h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $7 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $8 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $12 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $11 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 89¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 96¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 832 history records