trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 26¢ | 26¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-9%) |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Up | 21¢ | 0¢ | $19 | $0 | −$19 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $5 | +$14 | +276% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $8 | +$9 | +114% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? | Jun 03 | $40 | −$11 | -28% |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Jun 03 | $79 | −$73 | -92% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Mar 26 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Mar 23 | $33 | −$14 | -41% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Mar 23 | $10 | +$4 | +44% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Mar 23 | $7 | +$3 | +36% |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? | Mar 23 | $30 | −$23 | -76% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | Mar 18 | $30 | −$6 | -20% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Mar 16 | $20 | +$10 | +52% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Mar 15 | $14 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | Mar 15 | $20 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Mar 15 | $10 | +$4 | +38% |
| Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? | Mar 14 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of June 202 | Mar 14 | $2 | −$1 | -65% |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13 | Mar 13 | $30 | +$6 | +20% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Mar 13 | $50 | +$8 | +17% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Mar 13 | $44 | +$4 | +9% |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 13 | $30 | +$2 | +6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +18.0% | +6.8% | 40% | 40% | -3.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 29% | 29% | -57.6% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -15.5% | -23.5% | 36% | 29% | -53.0% |
| all | 24 | -9.3% | -17.9% | 54% | 33% | -28.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.9% | 33% | -28.1% |
| 10% | -25.8% | 25% | -34.9% |
| 15% | -33.0% | 25% | -41.2% |
| 20% | -39.5% | 12% | -47.0% |