Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D0 0xd0f3…0fc5 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$230 (+5%) realized +$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$20
other 10% −$10
crypto 4% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -2.0% -11.4% 44% 38% -10.4%
≤30d 39 -2.0% -11.4% 44% 38% -10.4%
≤90d 39 -2.0% -11.4% 44% 38% -10.4%
all 39 -2.0% -11.4% 44% 38% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 38% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 33% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 26% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 18% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$43 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $508 −$302 -59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$1 -3%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $152 +$13 +9%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $152 +$7 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $152 +$147 +97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +19%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $304 −$127 -42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $304 +$81 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $701 −$21 -3%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 +$14 +14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $152 −$98 -64%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$49 +49%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$83 +41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$7 -7%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $306 −$147 -48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $254 +$88 +35%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 +$82 +80%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$65 +64%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -76%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 +$9 +43%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$20 +196%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$5 -26%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$7 -34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -21%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$10 -10%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 +$102 +101%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$80 +79%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 +$19 +61%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $142 −$128 -90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$31 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $206 57m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 77¢ $49 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 62¢ $165 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $152 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 61¢ $159 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $300 4h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 15¢ $18 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 36¢ $177 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $202 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $242 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 50¢ $680 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $701 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $117 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 19¢ $55 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $152 9h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 11h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $152 12h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $152 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $153 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records