Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd0f8…6b50 sports 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,419 (+7%) realized +$3,354 · open −$935
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%48W / 95L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 267d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$2,604
world 33% +$3,227
other 9% −$890
tech 5% −$499
politics 2% +$647
finance 0% −$80
economics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -52.0% -56.6% 25% 25% -41.2%
≤30d 28 -44.7% -50.0% 32% 32% -25.2%
≤90d 128 -8.0% -16.7% 29% 27% -22.7%
all 143 +5.9% -4.2% 34% 31% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 31% -0.7%
10% -13.4% 27% -10.2%
15% -21.7% 22% -18.9%
20% -29.4% 18% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$162 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$2,278
Realized+$3,354
Unrealized−$935
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses48 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions12
Markets (closed)143 / 155
History coverage267d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $468 $476 +$9 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 55¢ 46¢ $549 $455 −$94 (-17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $400 $448 +$49 (+12%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $443 $246 −$196 (-44%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $141 $143 +$2 (+2%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 42¢ $206 $120 −$86 (-42%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Yes 23¢ 9¢ $297 $116 −$181 (-61%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $103 $102 −$1 (-1%)
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $499 $67 −$432 (-87%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 6¢ 6¢ $60 $55 −$5 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Jun 16 $709 −$9 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $278 −$273 -98%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? Jun 12 $116 +$33 +29%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $98 +$55 +56%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $264 −$260 -99%
Overwatch: Crazy Raccoon vs ZANSIDE GAMING (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 G Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 10 $47 −$46 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $32 −$31 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $1,001 +$300 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $938 +$247 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $391 −$391 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $301 +$99 +33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $158 −$154 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $356 −$351 -98%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? May 27 $234 +$36 +16%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $228 −$228 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $315 −$315 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 23 $103 −$14 -13%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 22 $112 −$5 -5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $473 −$468 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $335 +$165 +49%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 21 $60 −$59 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $318 +$182 +57%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $610 +$442 +72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $244 +$640 +262%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 16 $360 +$88 +24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 15 $216 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 15 $404 −$202 -50%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 14 $874 −$642 -74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 14 $1,626 +$296 +18%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $2,108 +$66 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $106 +$424 +400%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 11 $104 −$102 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 11 $245 −$70 -29%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $334 −$329 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $100 +$900 +900%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $27 +$434 +1595%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $200 +$540 +270%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 08 $331 −$324 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $181 +$62 +34%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 07 $470 −$93 -20%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 07 $50 −$43 -85%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $216 +$186 +86%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $218 +$16 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 62¢ $40 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 61¢ $59 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 61¢ $124 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $106 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 7h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 6¢ $31 10h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 6¢ $31 10h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL No 39¢ $625 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $40 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL No 39¢ $18 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL No 39¢ $8 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 2¢ $1 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 7¢ $176 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL No 39¢ $2 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? SELL No 39¢ $33 4d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $39 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B SELL Forsaken 24¢ $154 4d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $0 4d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 15¢ $71 5d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 15¢ $0 5d
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 15¢ $27 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $264 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $195 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $285 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $344 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,278.11 · official $2,278.11 (match) · 650 history records