Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd0fe…9457 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$3
other 35% +$3
politics 18% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% +$1
culture 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 36% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 36% 0% -10.3%
all 28 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage392d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $9 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $43 −$2 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $64 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 15 $49 $0 -0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will "The Phoenician Scheme" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $ Jun 06 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 02 $23 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 01 $22 $0 -1%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 31 $22 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $46 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $46 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $36 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $10 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 45h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $29 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $29 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $41 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $43 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $14 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records