Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd0ff…134a crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$251 (-13%) realized −$367 · open +$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$509
other 45% −$549
sports 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +49.2% +35.0% 50% 50% -20.5%
≤30d 18 +49.2% +35.0% 50% 50% -20.5%
≤90d 18 +49.2% +35.0% 50% 50% -20.5%
all 18 +49.2% +35.0% 50% 50% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.0% 50% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here +22.0% 50% -28.1%
15% +10.2% 44% -35.1%
20% -0.6% 44% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$83 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $140 $269 +$129 (+92%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $250 $237 −$13 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$40 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $128 +$67 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$112 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $129 +$116 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $83 +$84 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$119 +450%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $295 −$290 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $249 −$246 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.34 · official $585.74 · 46 history records