Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd100…853d sports 845 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30,508 (+94%) realized +$30,509 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%421W / 412L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day126.6pace
Fees−$400est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$392
other 17% +$1,460
world 0% −$39
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 424 -2.9% -12.1% 52% 50% +16.4%
≤30d 833 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -6.6%
≤90d 833 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -6.6%
all 833 -5.0% -14.1% 51% 49% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 49% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 44% -15.6%
15% -29.8% 34% -23.7%
20% -36.7% 27% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$29 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$30,509
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses421 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$400
Open positions15
Markets (closed)833 / 845
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day126.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 833 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+71%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 75¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Curaçao 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Curaçao 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 −$34 -70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 $0 +24%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $221 +$180 +82%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $116 −$49 -42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,046 +$1,416 +135%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $11 +$6 +52%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $40 +$33 +83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $162 +$106 +66%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $27 −$6 -20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $87 −$63 -73%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $43 −$16 -38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +29%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $24 +$8 +35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $42 +$59 +140%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $44 +$14 +32%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $35 +$15 +44%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3 +$2 +83%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$50 +49%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +20%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $29 +$9 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $139 +$15 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $87 +$18 +21%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 +$1 +31%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $16 +$1 +4%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $69 +$37 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $624 −$40 -6%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $16 −$12 -76%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $53 −$39 -73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $177 −$140 -79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $117 −$16 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 76¢ $2 31m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 33¢ $1 57m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 29¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 29¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $21 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $17 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $840 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $159 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 60¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 64¢ $3 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $216 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.15 · official $79.15 (match) · 3500 history records