Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd103…dc55 culture 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy culture specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$910 (-55%) realized −$1,140 · open +$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%3W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 96% −$835
other 3% −$4
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-81.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -62.1% -65.7% 0% 0% -65.7%
≤90d 2 -25.4% -32.5% 50% 50% -33.0%
all 46 -79.8% -81.7% 7% 7% -89.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -81.7% 7% -89.7%
10% -83.5% 4% -90.7%
15% -85.1% 4% -91.6%
20% -86.5% 4% -92.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -80% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$26 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$606
Realized−$1,140
Unrealized+$230
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses3 / 43
Open positions9
Markets (closed)46 / 55
History coverage122d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $321 $554 +$233 (+73%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $57 −$35 -62%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 02 $55 +$6 +11%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $5 +$19 +376%
Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy A Mar 17 $10 +$20 +202%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Mar 16 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Butcher's Stain win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Acade Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca Mar 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Mar 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Original Score at the 98th Acad Mar 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will The Voice of Hind Rajab win Best International Feature Film at th Mar 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will It Was Just An Accident win Best International Feature Film at th Mar 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will The Smashing Machine win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Award Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Marty Supreme" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Marty Supreme" win no awards at the Oscars? Mar 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Award Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars? Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academ Mar 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Train Dreams - Train Dreams win Best Original Song at the 98th Ac Mar 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? Mar 07 $43 −$25 -57%
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Feb 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Hamnet" win no awards at the Oscars? Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $136 1h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $49 35h
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 4d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 16d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $22 26d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 53d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 53d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 54d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 55d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 55d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 56d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 56d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 57d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $40 66d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $22 75d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 80d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 80d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.06 · official $606.06 (match) · 213 history records