trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 88¢ | $602,545 | $567,527 | −$35,017 (-6%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $32,300 | $33,300 | +$1,000 (+3%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $32,300 | $32,700 | +$400 (+1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 77¢ | $33,040 | $26,967 | −$6,072 (-18%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 11¢ | $20,581 | $22,700 | +$2,119 (+10%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $21,900 | $19,300 | −$2,600 (-12%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $17,100 | $15,700 | −$1,400 (-8%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $16,110 | $15,460 | −$650 (-4%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $16,900 | $14,900 | −$2,000 (-12%) |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $7,000 | $5,250 | −$1,750 (-25%) |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $5,280 | $4,680 | −$600 (-11%) |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $5,000 | $3,875 | −$1,125 (-22%) |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5,000 | $3,500 | −$1,500 (-30%) |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5,600 | $3,500 | −$2,100 (-38%) |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4,500 | $2,250 | −$2,250 (-50%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 86¢ | 94¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 11? | Jun 12 | $74,248 | +$4,259 | +6% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? | Jun 12 | $29,130 | +$870 | +3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 10? | Jun 11 | $195,235 | +$8,774 | +4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 10 | $260,047 | +$7,843 | +3% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? | Jun 09 | $24,675 | −$96 | -0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 09 | $137,987 | +$32 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 09 | $96,818 | +$1,175 | +1% |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $49,300 | +$100 | +0% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 09 | $49,000 | −$50 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 08 | $2,552 | +$2,784 | +109% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $40,017 | +$29,420 | +74% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Jun 07 | $10,673 | +$680 | +6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 07 | $81,700 | −$34,556 | -42% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | +12.6% | +1.9% | 77% | 15% | -7.7% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +12.6% | +1.9% | 77% | 15% | -7.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +12.6% | +1.9% | 77% | 15% | -7.7% |
| all | 13 | +12.6% | +1.9% | 77% | 15% | -7.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +1.9% | 15% | -7.7% |
| 10% | -7.9% | 15% | -16.5% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -16.8% | 15% | -24.6% |
| 20% | -24.9% | 15% | -32.0% |