Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd105…3613 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$123 (-35%) realized −$120 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$80
crypto 7% −$25
other 6% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-76.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -73.5% -76.0% 10% 10% -72.1%
≤30d 10 -73.5% -76.0% 10% 10% -72.1%
≤90d 10 -73.5% -76.0% 10% 10% -72.1%
all 10 -73.5% -76.0% 10% 10% -72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.0% 10% -72.1%
10% -78.3% 10% -74.8%
15% -80.4% 10% -77.2%
20% -82.3% 10% -79.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$17 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$120
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$34 +165%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 4h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 5h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 6h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 11h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 39¢ $20 12h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 13h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 40h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 44h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.83 · official $166.84 (match) · 18 history records