Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd106…c79c
sports · 205 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$745,186 -147%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$739,784 · open −$5,403
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Net worth$59,703
Realized−$739,784
Unrealized−$5,403
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses99 / 520
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$7,190
Open positions20
Markets (closed)619 / 205
History coverage9d
Avg bet$2,476
Trades / day359.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 20 History 619 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$742,232
7 days−$757,931
14 days−$739,784
30 days−$739,784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 48¢ 46¢ $6,211 $6,012 −$199 (-3%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ 92¢ $3,119 $5,508 +$2,389 (+77%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 43¢ 92¢ $2,434 $5,292 +$2,858 (+117%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 48¢ $5,733 $5,275 −$458 (-8%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 54¢ 88¢ $3,031 $4,912 +$1,880 (+62%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 68¢ 88¢ $3,033 $3,936 +$903 (+30%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 54¢ 76¢ $2,103 $2,986 +$884 (+42%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 40¢ 28¢ $4,027 $2,858 −$1,169 (-29%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 57¢ $1,996 $2,662 +$666 (+33%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ 60¢ $2,488 $2,459 −$28 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 46¢ 50¢ $1,952 $2,100 +$148 (+8%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 54¢ $2,039 $2,019 −$20 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ 36¢ $2,499 $1,875 −$624 (-25%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 52¢ 60¢ $1,335 $1,553 +$218 (+16%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 65¢ 66¢ $1,200 $1,228 +$28 (+2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 50¢ 64¢ $948 $1,204 +$256 (+27%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ 72¢ $959 $1,194 +$235 (+25%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 57¢ 42¢ $1,478 $1,101 −$377 (-26%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 39¢ 40¢ $947 $984 +$36 (+4%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 46¢ 12¢ $3,275 $897 −$2,378 (-73%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 52¢ $708 $779 +$71 (+10%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 49¢ $3,071 $530 −$2,541 (-83%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 53¢ 54¢ $329 $334 +$5 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 38¢ $355 $318 −$37 (-10%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 46¢ 24¢ $537 $274 −$263 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 13 $113 −$113 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4,648 −$4,648 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4,973 −$4,973 -100%
Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5 Jun 13 $658 −$658 -100%
Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 241.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 230.5 Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Suns (-17.5) Jun 13 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Suns: O/U 223.5 Jun 13 $700 −$700 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5 Jun 13 $815 −$815 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 13 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $2,369 −$2,369 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Jun 13 $404 −$404 -100%
Predators vs. Sharks Jun 13 $760 −$760 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $444 −$444 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2,028 −$2,028 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Jun 13 $340 −$340 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $4,715 −$4,715 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Jun 13 $119 −$119 -100%
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 248.5 Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $687 −$687 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Jun 13 $477 −$477 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $235 −$235 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $1,123 −$1,123 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-12.5) Jun 13 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-16.5) Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: 1H Moneyline Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5 Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets: O/U 221.5 Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $497 −$497 -100%
Bucks vs. 76ers: O/U 225.5 Jun 13 $241 −$241 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $6,098 −$6,098 -100%
Thunder vs. Nets: O/U 212.5 Jun 13 $6,809 −$6,809 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5 Jun 13 $399 −$399 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Raptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 Jun 13 $823 −$823 -100%
Kings vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Jun 13 $376 −$376 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 13 $2,869 −$2,869 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5) Jun 13 $394 −$394 -100%
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 229.5 Jun 13 $175 −$175 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs: O/U 234.5 Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5 Jun 13 $371 −$371 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) Jun 13 $1,192 −$1,192 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$39,798
other 0% −$524
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $2 9m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $29 20m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $8 21m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $5 21m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $7 39m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $3 39m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $137 39m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $3 40m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $254 40m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $791 41m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 51¢ $78 50m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $27 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $99 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 56¢ $27 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $822 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $230 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $376 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $508 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $130 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $18 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $19 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $147 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $64 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $201 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $7 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $869 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $6 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $14 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $34 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-66.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 596 -71.6% -74.3% 15% 14% -66.9%
≤30d 619 -62.8% -66.3% 16% 15% -64.5%
≤90d 619 -62.8% -66.3% 16% 15% -64.5%
all 619 -62.8% -66.3% 16% 15% -64.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover359.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.3% 15% -64.5%
10% -69.5% 14% -67.9%
15% ← realistic here -72.5% 11% -71.0%
20% -75.2% 10% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59,703.44 · official $58,801.23 · 3500 history records