Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd109…6fa0 world 178 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$87,539 (+27%) realized +$30,412 · open +$53,296
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%72W / 62L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$1,835per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$155,954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$695
7 days+$12,647
14 days+$18,586
30 days+$28,304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$59,302
politics 17% +$4,641
other 10% +$15,491
crypto 6% +$6,659
finance 1% −$26
sports 1% −$2,492
tech 0% −$299
economics 0% +$168
culture 0% +$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +42.3% +28.7% 68% 45% +8.9%
≤30d 73 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 38% +10.1%
≤90d 131 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 35% +4.8%
all 134 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 36% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 36% +4.8%
10% -22.0% 28% -5.3%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 22% -14.4%
20% -36.4% 18% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$1,008) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$689 vs −$310 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$155,954
Realized+$30,412
Unrealized+$53,296
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses72 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions44
Markets (closed)134 / 178
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,835
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 38¢ 79¢ $21,965 $45,016 +$23,052 (+105%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 96¢ $16,132 $30,810 +$14,679 (+91%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 96¢ $11,435 $18,490 +$7,055 (+62%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $4,459 $7,319 +$2,860 (+64%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 40¢ 99¢ $2,721 $6,784 +$4,064 (+149%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 98¢ $4,557 $5,966 +$1,409 (+31%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 44¢ 76¢ $3,128 $5,439 +$2,311 (+74%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $4,897 $5,352 +$455 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $2,824 $5,223 +$2,399 (+85%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $3,782 $3,411 −$371 (-10%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 27¢ 98¢ $817 $2,960 +$2,143 (+262%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5,140 $2,634 −$2,506 (-49%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 11¢ 100¢ $280 $2,537 +$2,257 (+806%)
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? No 88¢ 96¢ $2,220 $2,439 +$219 (+10%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $1,172 $1,671 +$498 (+43%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,202 $1,092 −$110 (-9%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 94¢ 99¢ $941 $987 +$46 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 40¢ 80¢ $483 $968 +$485 (+101%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $1,699 $953 −$746 (-44%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $513 $913 +$400 (+78%)
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $684 $713 +$29 (+4%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $963 $708 −$255 (-26%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1,781 $621 −$1,160 (-65%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 38¢ 62¢ $325 $526 +$201 (+62%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $411 $514 +$103 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $9,855 +$293 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $14,369 −$20 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,955 −$967 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $8,119 +$712 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1,509 +$3,745 +248%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1,201 +$3,506 +292%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,502 +$318 +21%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $1,034 +$66 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $416 −$416 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $106 +$182 +172%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $54 +$1 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $284 −$176 -62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $711 +$1,343 +189%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $1,559 +$3,470 +223%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $458 +$239 +52%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $901 −$468 -52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2,231 −$2,231 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $78 +$22 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $543 +$605 +111%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $6,927 +$2,717 +39%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 04 $1,515 −$556 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $237 +$273 +115%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20,293 +$6,682 +33%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 03 $5,288 +$212 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $1,428 +$248 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $897 +$33 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $9,272 −$720 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $170 −$170 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,989 +$342 +17%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $341 −$335 -98%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $61 −$16 -25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $9,281 +$12,974 +140%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $382 −$382 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $389 −$119 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $185 +$43 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $65 +$18 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $5,488 −$2,258 -41%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $505 −$280 -55%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $247 −$247 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $1,008 +$31 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $195 +$160 +82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 24 $576 −$111 -19%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $383 +$46 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $577 −$53 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $2,560 6m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10,148 13m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $419 54m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 54m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 56m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $25 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $292 1h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $49 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $708 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $816 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $450 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,326 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,884 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4,968 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $4,542 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155,953.85 · official $155,970.34 (match) · 2117 history records