Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd10f…bef4 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$422 (+4%) realized +$533 · open −$111
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%63W / 55L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days+$427
14 days+$671
30 days+$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$439
other 1% −$44
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +29.7% +17.4% 67% 64% -0.1%
≤30d 80 +21.2% +9.7% 56% 55% -2.2%
≤90d 118 +10.3% -0.2% 53% 53% -6.0%
all 118 +10.3% -0.2% 53% 53% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 53% -6.0%
10% -9.8% 53% -15.0%
15% -18.5% 53% -23.2%
20% -26.5% 53% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$83 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized+$533
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses63 / 55
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions3
Markets (closed)118 / 121
History coverage42d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 38¢ 36¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 36¢ 34¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Team Nemesis 47¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho Jun 17 $61 +$50 +83%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $203 +$4 +2%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 16 $61 +$44 +72%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $203 +$167 +82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 +$57 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 16 $61 +$55 +90%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 15 $41 +$56 +137%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $41 +$150 +365%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $203 +$168 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $61 +$98 +160%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $61 +$46 +76%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $61 +$36 +58%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 14 $188 −$184 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $81 +$46 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$61 +60%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $202 +$136 +67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $61 +$69 +114%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $61 +$39 +64%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $202 +$130 +64%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $61 +$89 +146%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $202 +$120 +60%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $51 +$65 +129%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $203 +$148 +73%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $203 +$169 +83%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $203 +$173 +85%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 10 $203 +$155 +76%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $203 +$168 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 09 $61 +$51 +84%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $101 +$84 +83%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 06 $76 −$75 -98%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 06 $26 +$74 +291%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $101 +$66 +65%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 05 $76 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 36¢ $102 5h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho BUY No 54¢ $61 6h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 49¢ $203 9h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 47¢ $102 10h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 54¢ $61 25h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 57¢ $61 25h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $203 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 47h
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) BUY HyperSpirit 54¢ $203 47h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $203 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $61 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY No 54¢ $61 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. BUY No 52¢ $61 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $91 2d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 56¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $41 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $41 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $61 2d
Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $41 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $203 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 3d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY No 62¢ $61 3d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 42¢ $188 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $203 3d
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) BUY Galions 59¢ $202 4d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 48¢ $203 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $102 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.30 · official $393.30 (match) · 189 history records