Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D1 0xd110…4bff other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$89 (+31%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$61
sports 20% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -27.5% -34.4% 33% 33% -3.1%
≤30d 8 +79.7% +62.6% 38% 38% +35.9%
≤90d 8 +79.7% +62.6% 38% 38% +35.9%
all 8 +79.7% +62.6% 38% 38% +35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.6% 38% +35.9%
10% +47.0% 38% +22.9%
15% +32.8% 38% +11.0%
20% +19.8% 38% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$15 · ×3.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $42 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$50 +117%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $29 +$34 +118%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$74 +804%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 10h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 9d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 10d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 10d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.75 · official $115.75 (match) · 18 history records