Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd113…a066 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$7
sports 8% $0
politics 7% $0
other 6% −$7
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 18 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 18 +0.4% -9.2% 44% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 3% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -11.3%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage478d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $83 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $34 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 25 $1 $0 +13%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 24 $10 $0 -5%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31? Mar 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump say 'Peace' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $6 $0 -5%
Will Trump say 'Ukraine' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $13 −$6 -50%
Wyoming vs. Fresno State Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
West Virginia vs. Utah Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 43¢ $39 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 43¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $18 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $16 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $30 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $5 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $7 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $28 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $36 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $8 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $8 34h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $40 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $8 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $8 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records