Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D1 0xd115…4906 weather 356 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,155 (+2%) realized +$1,184 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%327W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day87.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$440
14 days+$986
30 days+$1,184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +3.2% -6.7% 91% 13% -6.7%
≤30d 352 +2.0% -7.7% 93% 7% -7.9%
≤90d 352 +2.0% -7.7% 93% 7% -7.9%
all 352 +2.0% -7.7% 93% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 7% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 5% -16.8%
15% -24.6% 3% -24.8%
20% -32.0% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.31 per $1 lost it wins $7.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized+$1,184
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses327 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)352 / 356
History coverage20d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day87.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $506 $509 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? No 83¢ 87¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? No 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? No 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? No 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $215 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $205 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1,486 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $1,486 +$13 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $445 +$104 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $303 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $538 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $66 +$21 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $1,216 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 09 $18 +$16 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 09 $133 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $990 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $376 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $611 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $259 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $137 +$36 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $515 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 9? Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 08 $138 +$105 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $87 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 08 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 08 $173 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $309 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $498 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $59 +$35 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $1,457 +$41 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $481 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $64 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $63 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 −$2 -11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 08 $174 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $217 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $215 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 89¢ $53 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $11 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $12 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $45 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $256 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $62 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $85 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $199 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1,498 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1,498 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1,486 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $1,486 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $60 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $49 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.86 · official $571.86 (match) · 1767 history records