Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd116…bf59 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$3
other 19% +$1
politics 6% −$4
sports 5% +$1
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
weather 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.3%
all 33 +2.5% -7.2% 42% 12% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 12% -9.9%
10% -16.1% 9% -18.6%
15% -24.2% 6% -26.4%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage484d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 48¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $53 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $84 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $45 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $2 $0 -10%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 04 $6 $0 +3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $6 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 04 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $2 +$1 +31%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 23 $1 $0 -23%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 22 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today? Mar 05 $13 −$5 -35%
Sharks vs. Sabres Mar 04 $13 $0 -2%
Grimace vs. DoubleYou Mar 04 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February Mar 04 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $39 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $45 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $45 9d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $6 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.77 · official $32.77 (match) · 102 history records