Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd11c…ff7d weather 598 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$494 (+1%) realized +$1,978 · open −$1,484
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate65%391W / 206L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5,661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$390
14 days+$576
30 days+$763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% +$1,540
politics 10% −$1,479
world 8% −$1,130
sports 5% +$148
other 3% −$40
crypto 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +27.6% +15.4% 70% 36% -2.2%
≤30d 212 +8.3% -2.0% 75% 32% -6.0%
≤90d 575 +5.3% -4.7% 65% 35% -6.6%
all 597 +5.4% -4.7% 65% 34% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 34% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 21% -17.4%
15% -22.1% 16% -25.4%
20% -29.7% 13% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$5,661
Realized+$1,978
Unrealized−$1,484
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses391 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)597 / 598
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$114
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $2,500 $3,982 +$1,482 (+59%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $2,500 $1,017 −$1,483 (-59%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $331 $331 −$0 (-0%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $331 $331 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $135 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $153 +$22 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $238 +$18 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $67 −$19 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $30 −$15 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $150 +$28 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $139 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $238 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $119 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $85 −$13 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $338 +$27 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $42 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $48 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $159 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $125 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $25 +$53 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $119 −$9 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $62 −$23 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $244 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $149 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $138 −$20 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $22 +$8 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $96 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$54 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 −$8 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $111 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$63 +1204%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $33 +$18 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 +$7 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $308 +$14 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $205 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $87 +$17 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 +$57 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 73¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 85¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $175 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 90¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 90¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 91¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 91¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 91¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $135 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 55¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 54¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 55¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 54¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 84¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $64 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? SELL No 21¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 89¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,661.17 · official $5,661.67 (match) · 3500 history records