Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd11d…f9a5 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$133 (-20%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$129
14 days−$167
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-51.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -45.4% -50.6% 36% 21% -29.9%
≤30d 16 -46.0% -51.1% 31% 19% -32.0%
≤90d 16 -46.0% -51.1% 31% 19% -32.0%
all 16 -46.0% -51.1% 31% 19% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.1% 19% -32.0%
10% -55.8% 19% -38.5%
15% -60.1% 19% -44.5%
20% -64.0% 19% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$26 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $228 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $97 −$93 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$38 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $61 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $50 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 40¢ $97 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 28¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records